COVID-19 modeling predicts peak in omicron cases in 2 to 3 weeks

COVID modeling, a complex math equation, is helping predict when we can finally see a decline in COVID-19 cases. Dr. Juan Gutierrez, chair of mathematics at UTSA, predicts a peak in omicron cases in two to three weeks.

“Until the world is vaccinated, we will be subject to the risk of COVID. This could keep coming back. The next variant, sigma, could emerge at any point in time,” Gutierrez said.

Gutierrez said COVID modeling takes numerous variables into account. It looks at how infectious a particular strain is, vaccination rates in an area and mandates in place, among other factors.

For mid-July of 2021, Gutierrez estimated Bexar County would have 50,000 to 200,000 cases and 750 to 3,000 deaths. The actual cases and deaths came out to 100,000 and 1,400, respectively.

“Our future is at stake, so please get a vaccine. Please use face masks until this passes,” Gutierrez.

He warns that more COVID variants will continue to appear if we don’t get more people vaccinated.


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